Why the New York Jets Made a Big Mistake Signing Ed Reed
It may be all handshakes and smiles right now, but bringing in Ed Reed will prove to be a decision the Jets will regret.
Adding a player of Ed Reed’s stature may seem like a no-brainer decision, but these types of moves are best reserved for your Madden franchise. The truth is, there are a lot more risks involved in bringing in the future Hall-of-Famer than benefits.
The Jets have not simply brought in slower version of Ed Reed; they brought in a player that has been in a steady decline before he was released from the Houston Texans—and everyone except for the Jets has taken notice.
As much as the Jets’ secondary has struggled at times this season, adding a player that is just a few months removed from career-altering hip surgery has a better chance of making the unit worse rather than patching it up over seven short weeks.
Just How Bad is Ed Reed Now?
Mitch Stringer-USA TODAY Sports
For roughly a decade, NFL teams have feared to throw in Ed Reed’s direction, believing that the propensity for Reed to make a game-changing interception was overwhelming.
Quarterbacks should still be aware of where Reed is, but not because they are still afraid of him. Now, they should actually start targeting him as a weak link in the secondary.
In his 275 snaps as a Houston Texan, quarterbacks have a perfect rating (158.3) when throwing at someone who was once one of the most feared players in NFL history, according to Pro Football Focus. Not only has he has yet to get one of his signature interceptions this year, but he has not even defended a single pass.
Reed’s play caused a severe drop in playing time. By the time he was released, he was averaging less than 40 snaps per game, which is roughly half of a typical snap total for a starter.
The Texans essentially benched Reed, and for good reason. He was a huge liability in the back end, even when attempting to do what he crafted a Hall of Fame resume on: roaming centerfield, reading the play in front of him and making a play.
Here, Reed dropped into a deep Cover 1 position where he could read and react to the quarterback’s eyes:
NFL Game Rewind
Meanwhile, Vernon Davis ran a deep “out” pattern.
Reed saw Davis getting open and broke to make a play on the ball, but his legs were not moving as fast as his brain. Reed was far too late to the ball, and Davis was left to make the easy catch.
NFL Game Rewind
On this play, it was Reed’s sole job to find a way to get to Davis and limit the damage. However, Reed again overrated his own speed and took a bad angle to the ball.
Notice how much yardage Reed took up in relation to Davis—Davis ate up nearly twice as much ground as Reed while beating him to the edge.
NFL Game Rewind
As a result, Reed was left on the turf, while Davis trotted in for the touchdown.
NFL Game Rewind
It is certainly sad to see such a decorated player abused in this fashion, but this is the reality of what Ed Reed is as a player at this point in his career. Yes, his instincts are still functional, but his legs are a few steps behind what is going on in his head.
Not Addressing the Problem
It is hardly a secret that the Jets’ secondary has underperformed this season, but unless Ed Reed can perform like he is five years younger and plays cornerback, adding him to the secondary will do little to solve their problem of allowing too much yardage through the air.
For the most part, the Jets’ safeties have been at least satisfactory. The real issue of their pass defense falls on the shoulders of the cornerbacks.
The Jets have, arguably, the worst set of starting cornerbacks in the league. According to Pro Football Focus, Antonio Cromartie and Dee Milliner rank 102nd and 93rd (out of 106), respectively, at their position.
Meanwhile, while the incumbent starter at free safety, Dawan Landry, has been anything but a dominant player, he has at least held his own in preventing big plays from getting worse. Currently ranked as the 17th-best safety in the NFL in Pro Football Focus’ rankings, Landry has yielded just a 57.9 completion percentage this season.
It comes to no surprise that Rex Ryan has already stated that Reed will not be a starter, at least in the short term:
There are plenty of reasons as to why the Jets have been so vulnerable against the pass (especially considering how dominant their defensive line has been), but the safety play is not the area of the team that needs a desperate signing of a fading veteran to stop the bleeding.
The Monetary Effect
As of this writing, Ed Reed’s contract details have not been officially released, but let’s work under the assumption that the Jets got Reed at the veteran’s minimum for a player with over 10 years of experience (Reed has 12), which amounts to $940,000 (h/t ProFootballTalk).
This total will be prorated over the next seven weeks, hitting the Jets salary cap for a total of $387,058.
This may not seem like a lot of money, but it is important to remember that any salary cap room not used carries over to the next season. Therefore, the Jets are taking nearly $400,000 out of their pocket next season—in what should be a somewhat aggressive, rebuilding offseason—for a player who will only make their secondary worse.
Sure, $400,000 is not going to make or break the Jets season in 2014. But $400,000 here and $400,000 there, and all of a sudden, the Jets are taking away room to sign a quality free-agent starter or give extra bonus money to a veteran extension. Remember, they are already paying “extra” contracts to mid-season signings such as David Nelson and Josh Cribbs.
If Reed was truly a difference-maker that could vault the Jets into the playoffs, this money would be well-spent. Based on his play, however, any cost, albeit a small one, is not worth what they are getting in return.
Messing With Success
Larry French/Getty Images
Even if Rex Ryan can stretch his defensive genius even further to turn Reed into a serviceable player in a highly-specific role, this signing is a somewhat concerning sign for a team that was in the perfect position through the first half of the season.
Earlier this week, the Jets were young, talented and were operating with seamless chemistry amongst one another. This team was supposed to be rebuilding; the fact that they were 5-4 was a bonus, and any wins they got between now and the end of the season would be gravy.
By signing Reed, the Jets are starting to push their luck with what is a well-balanced, young team.
The old, desperate Jets under Mike Tannenbaum likely would have signed Reed—after all, they made a similar move when acquiring wide receiver Derrick Mason in 2011. Ironically, Mason was traded to the Texans a month into the season.
Elsa/Getty Images
Derrick Mason’s path to the Jets is eerily similar to that of Ed Reed’s
While he was nowhere near the caliber of player that Reed was throughout his career, Mason was regarded as a veteran leader with the Baltimore Ravens. In a new environment in New York, Mason reportedly became a “cancer” on his new team.
This is not to say that Reed will become a self-centered “cancer,” but Mason’s case is a perfect example of how a veteran that is used to controlling a locker room may not mesh with a new environment. Just like Mason, Reed also had familiarity with head coach Rex Ryan.
After all, Reed has already admitted that he was “not a fit” with the Texans, who was the first team he played for after 11 seasons with the Baltimore Ravens.
The Jets already have an issue on their hands in dealing with an accomplished player who was not taking his diminishing role on the field well on his former team:
The most concerning aspect of this signing is how the Jets are reverting to their old ways of acquiring “quick fixes” to their problems. Yes, the secondary has not played well through eight games, but acquiring a rapidly regressing player for a young team that has just found its stride is exactly the type of move the previous regime would have made.
So far, John Idzik has not made many mistakes in his first year as general manager, but this will likely turn out to be one of the few stains on his record in 2013.
Advanced statistics provided by ProFootballFocus.com (subscription required).
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44 Comments
Default-user-icon-comment Rick Ginenthal posted less than a minute ago Contributor I
Why don’t the Jets Play Ellis Lankster at CB?? Last Year the Jets were 2nd in the League with Lankster Starting at Cb ( Replacing Revis) Now Lankster is reduced to a Special Teams player… I don’t get it, Ellis Lankster is probably their best cover corner with Cromartie struggling and Milliner being very green at this point. I watched last year and I stand by this comment, Ellis Lankster should be getting time at cornerback, I hope Rex realizes this before they get burned back there and it costs them.
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Default-user-icon-comment Jimmy posted 1 day ago Contributor I
The jets know they’re not getting 2007 Ed Reed. They brought him in as a relatively low risk player who knows the system and still has potential to help the team a lot. Not saying he will be a superstar, but he will be better with the Jets than he was with the Texans.
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The_logo3_crop_45x45 Joe Marco posted 1 day ago Contributor I
Exactly, even if Reed doesn’t PLAY well, his mentoring for the younger players is very valuable. It’s a win-win situation.
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Default-user-icon-comment Jordan Paul posted about 7 hours ago Contributor I
I agree. Rex helped made Ed a superstar. Rex can figure out what’s been up with him, and fix it. Also, he brings leadership, which the Jets completely lack.
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Merle-dixon_crop_45x45 1 comment collapsed Plus
Transformers-decepticon-logo-papercraft_crop_45x45 dan giudice posted 1 day ago Contributor I
I feel that this is a pretty positive signing. I am not expecting too much from Reed but I am expecting him to be a solid contributor. The pass D is ranked 24th in the league. despite how the writer claims that it is such a young cohesive unit. it still needs some tweaking here and there.
And complaining about $400,00 against the cap? C’Mon man that is probably the weakest argument you have in here. That is nothing to pay for the possible upside of what Reed MAY bring. You would also have to see the difference between his salary and Ricky Sapps (the player they cut for Reed) as that is the real difference in price.
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Default-user-icon-comment Ben Jesus posted about 20 hours ago Contributor I
yeah, 400K is not a big deal for next year… I’m guessing we are looking at 40 mil in cap space after Sanchez and Holmes are cut.
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Default-user-icon-comment Daniel Roth posted 1 day ago Contributor I
Yes Reed has lost a step but I also think learning a new scheme in Houston probably slowed him down a little more too. Rex uses the same defensive schemes that Reed is used to. As a whole no one is expecting him to go out and be the Reed from five years ago but if he can contribute in the plays he’s on the field and mentor the younger players it really can’t hurt. Remember according to news reports other teams did reach out to Reed so a few other teams saw use for him.
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Default-user-icon-comment johnny appleseed posted 1 day ago Contributor I
This article is contradicting on so many levels. Reed is not going to be the end all be all. We know this going into it. As to not addressing the problem, Cro has struggled this season but I have faith he will turn it around. Dee Miliner has a high ceiling and we are going to find out what he is. Landry and Allen have played alright Reed is not just going to come in and “Disrupt” things. If things go south for the Jets this year, I can assure you it wont be because Of Ed Reed. If the Patriots got their hands on him like they wanted. People might be singing a different tune.
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369867_4806643_1896477384_n_crop_45x45 James Uko posted 1 day ago Contributor I
The perfect pass percentage against Ed Reed is on 3 passes only. Gotta do better than that. Not saying Ed Reed isnt done, but the jets sometimes run Cover 3 and are running cover 2 more, allowing the D-line create pressure while extra men sit back in coverage. Dont think Ed Reed will be overexposed. Rex wont allow it
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Default-user-icon-comment nick parente posted 1 day ago Contributor I
the jets don’t need him to play 60 snaps a game. a player with his knowledge will be able to hold his own just playing in 20-30 snaps a game. your going off one play to say that ed reed is washed up. he was going up against vernon davis who is one of the fastest receivers in the game. ed took a shitty angle and got beat. hes human and like alot of other defenders, got beat by an elite player. i can show you a play where revis took a bad angle on a pass, but i wont go and say hes washed up. being in the right system and playing under rex will make a big difference in ed reeds play over the rest of the season.
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Default-user-icon-comment Jordan Fine posted 1 day ago Contributor I
I respect what you did here by writing such an in-depth article, but I have to disagree here. When people were first suggesting that we sign him right after the Texans cut him, I didn’t think that we should sign him. But it became clear as it was happening that this is going to work out. Yes, our secondary needs a major upgrade, but what are our other options? We have young talented players in Dee Milliner and Antonio Allen (who I happen to like very much), with Dawan Landry acting as a stop-gap at the safety position. Jaiquan Jarrett is a bust, he’s contributed but I doubt he’ll make the team next year. Cromartie will be gone after this season, bet on it. He’s a great veteran presence, but he’s not the equivalent to Ed Reed at the cornerback position, not even close. Plus, his cap number doesn’t equate to his performance on the field.
Having Ed Reed on the roster creates two major aspects to the Jets moving forward. He’s able to mentor these young players (one of whom is a struggling top 10 draft pick), and it forces teams to adjust their game plan. He won’t be on the team next year along with Cro, and you can bet that Idzik will be spending money and draft picks on the secondary this offseason. The Jets are looking good for the playoffs and will likely steal the final wildcard spot. Having a member of last year’s super bowl winning team and future hall of famer who can contribute on the field and off is going to be huge. He’s worth the money, he’s worth the hype.
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Geno_crop_45x45 Jason Baker posted about 24 hours ago Contributor I
Your arguments are weak. Even if Ed Reed is terrible, how is this a “big mistake?” It’s not like he’s going to be playing 50+ snaps a week. Worst-case scenario is that he’s the 4th safety and the Jets get a veteran leader/mentor. That’s a big mistake for the league minimum? LOL. He took Ricky Sapp’s roster spot. I dare you to say you’d rather have Sapp over Reed.
He’ll only be used in plays that will take advantage of his skills. You can criticize Rex for a variety of things (ridiculous challenges, lack of attention to offense, and mishandling situations), however, you can’t criticize his decisions in regards to who he wants on his defense. You criticized his decision to start Dee Milliner vs the Saints and Milliner played his best game of the year. Don’t you think Rex actually KNOWS what he’s doing? His knowledge of defense might be the best in the world.
Look at what he did with Trevor Pryce in 2010. Everyone thought he was done after he was cut by the Ravens. Rex picked him up and Pryce played really well for the Jets.
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Photo_on_8-4-13_at_6 Ryan Alfieri posted about 23 hours ago Featured Columnist III
Pryce was cut by the Ravens because they tried the “54 man roster trick”, and it backfired. No one thought Pryce was totally done.
This will be a mistake because he will likely be responsible for some big plays against the Jets, based on what he has shown since 2011.
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Geno_crop_45x45 Jason Baker posted about 16 hours ago Contributor I
A lot of people thought Trevor Pryce was done…In 3 games with the Ravens in 2010, he graded out at -2.4 and recorded only 2 pressures in 50 snaps. After signing with the Jets, he graded out at 10.8 the rest of the year and recorded 24 pressures in 259 snaps…
Lol.. Because Antonio Allen and Jarrett haven’t given up any big plays. Have you forgotten Graham carrying Jarrett like a backpack 10 yards to the house after hauling it in initially for 41 yards past him? And Allen is oh-so-lucky that Tom Brady/Gronk had some connection issues in that Pats game. Gronk could’ve very easily had 2 TDs and a 30+ gain on a seam down the middle. But Gronk dropped one, Gronk lost one in the sun, and Brady underthrew one. (The pick six was also just a bad throw that was behind Gronk; nothing really impressive done by Allen.)
Your overreaction to this is hilarious. Apparently, you think Ed Reed is like some Wayne Hunter of safeties. He might not be what he used to be, but he’s not even close to the liability you think he is. Just by reputation alone, his presence back there makes a difference.
And you still haven’t made a strong argument to support your hyperbolic statements.
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Photo_on_8-4-13_at_6 Ryan Alfieri posted about 8 hours ago Featured Columnist III
@Jason: 1. I made my argument in the 1500 words above that are laced with film study and statistical analysis.
2. Yes, Ed Reed is the Wayne Hunter of safeties at this point. Hes totally done.
3. Yes, I would take Ricky Sapp over Ed Reed.
4. Jimmy Graham does that to everyone.
5. You are not doing justice how well Allen has played.
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Random_pics_2012_013_crop_45x45 andrew klein posted about 8 hours ago Contributor I
Ryan, I usually like your articles but this one is way off. Who made you write it? The Reed signing is a total win-win situation. Sapp could hardly stay with the team from week to week, and the cap room difference is worth it. Having a future HOF back helping the weakest link in an otherwise great defense helps more than you know. Its like having another coach on the field or the sidelines. He will be worth his cost plus I truly believe Ryan will get him hyped up to play his best each Sunday and on into the playoffs…..GO JETS.
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Photo_on_8-4-13_at_6 Ryan Alfieri posted about 5 hours ago Featured Columnist III
@andrew: I chose to write this
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Default-user-icon-comment Patrick Suppa posted about 2 hours ago Contributor I
@Ryan: 1. I doubt that you’ve seen a Jets game this season by this article. Sapp over Reed is stupid when you look at their depth chart/roster. Sapp is just a waste of a roster spot as he sits behind Coples and McIntrye each game.
2. Its too soon to call out Ed Reed on being done, when he didn’t fit into the Texans system. How are you to know this?
3. Allen has been playing stellar for this Jets defense, and it’s not like Ed Reed is going to start over every saftey.
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Geno_crop_45x45 Jason Baker posted about 1 hour ago Contributor I
@Ryan: 1: Yes, you made your argument. No, it is not a good one.
2: You’re out of your mind. Have some personal hate against Reed or something? You’re so steadfast on this despite your arguments being so weak. That clearly indicates some bias.
3: Refer to #2.
4: Yes, and Vernon Davis does what he did to Ed Reed to everyone as well.
5: Jarrett has graded out better than Allen… There’s a reason they take Allen out for Jarrett in certain coverage situations. Allen is pretty bad. Even in his best game vs the Pats, he BARELY got a positive grade at +0.8…
Once again, AWFUL arguments on your part.
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Dar-tuesday-45_crop_45x45 chris man posted 1 day ago Contributor I
Would rather have brought in a veteran corner who could actually cover someone.
I guess Reed will be a good mentor and sounding board for the young Safteys but not much else.
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Jets_fan_crop_45x45 Bobbi posted 1 day ago Contributor I
OVERALL: I”m extremely happy with Ed Reed signing with the Jets.
Tho, somewhere in the back of my mind is a small voice asking “what if it messes with the perfect chemistry that already exist with the young Defense?”
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Default-user-icon-comment Tony BEJA posted 1 day ago Contributor I
Hey Ryan..
Silly and Un-substantive comments in your article..
You also probably said LaDanian Tomlinson was all washed up too..UNTIL THE JETS SIGNED HIM ! and then rode him to the playoffs in 2009 &10
You need to find another hobby…
Vote 1 : Like Reply Reply
Photo_on_8-4-13_at_6 Ryan Alfieri posted about 23 hours ago Featured Columnist III
Silly, I don’t know about that ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Vote 0 : Like Reply Reply
Default-user-icon-comment Joe Covida posted 1 day ago Contributor I
Nice to read intelligent, insightful comments by Jets fans. I take Alfieri’s comments in this article with a large grain of salt, especially in light of his history of poor analysis and prognostication. Time, as always, will once again prove him wrong.
Vote 0 : Like Reply Reply
Photo_on_8-4-13_at_6 Ryan Alfieri posted about 5 hours ago Featured Columnist III
You’re right – I have yet to defeat time
Vote 0 : Like Reply Reply
3561_10200993421066901_1682473314_n_crop_45x45 Kory Pray posted about 22 hours ago Contributor I
Even if he doesn’t play well he’s a good presence for Antonio Allen who’s flashing some real potential so what’s the downside?
I could understand if he was given a huge contract but it was virtually nothing to get a hall of famer who spent a couple of years playing in Rex’s system.
Vote 0 : Like Reply Reply
Phins_gradient_crop_45x45 Fin Fan68 posted about 8 hours ago Contributor I
Well written article. Reed is on the decline. His reactions were slow in Houston but I would expect them to be a bit quicker under Ryan simply because of his familiarity with the system. I doubt it will be enough to make a big difference though.
Vote 0 : Like Reply Reply
Geno_smith_otas_crop_45x45 Ryan Lawson posted about 5 hours ago Contributor I
You’re a Dolphins fan, therefore, your opinion is invalid.
Vote 0 : Like Reply Reply
Default-user-icon-comment Harold Hines posted about 6 hours ago Contributor I
You say teams have had a perfect 158.3 rating but ignore that it is on three passes. So teams are still avoiding Ed Reed when he is on the field. Your article is full of misstatements and faulty logic. Reed played pretty well with the Texans I saw about five Texan games and Ed Reed (other than this one play against Davis where two CB were playing one Wr in the flat and probably should have been in man under on Davis). I did not see anything to support your statements. He did not look slow. Is he Ed Reed from 2008? No but from what I watched I still would put him in the top 8 coverage safeties in the league. That will be huge for the Jets down the stretch.
Vote 0 : Like Reply Reply
Photo_on_8-4-13_at_6 Ryan Alfieri posted about 5 hours ago Featured Columnist III
He looked slow in the play I diagramed.
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Goodson Subject to NFL Discipline Again
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Just How Bad is Ed Reed Now?