Week 11 NFL Picks ATS: New York Jets at Buffalo Bills

New York Jets at Buffalo Bills
Time: 1 PM ET, Sun Nov 17, 2013
Spread: NYJ -1.5
O/U: 40
Odds courtesy of Bovada
The 5-4 New York Jets have been a surprise to many, behind the strength of a rookie QB Geno Smith and a rush defense which ranks first in the league, allowing just 73.8 yards per game to opponents. The Jets, meanwhile, have featured their own rush offense with an attack that generates 129 yards per game (good for 9th in the NFL). Smith has passed for nearly 2,000 yards on the season and rushed for an additional 172, while Bilal Powell and Chris Ivory each have combined for 783 yards.

Smith hasn’t been tremendously accurate as a passer, just 58.1 percent, but he’s done well for a rookie quarterback. His 13 sacks are tied for worst in the NFL, and Smith has been sacked 30 times on the season, but when he’s been at his best, he’s been hard to beat. Smith connected on 16-of-20 in a 30-28 win over Atlanta on Oct 7, and he threw for 233 yards in a 30-27 victory over New England, so the Jets will hope for that type of inspired performance to beat the Buffalo Bills on the road.
NFL oddsmakers at Bovada find the Jets to be 1.5-point favorites over the Bills, who are just 2-3 at home in 2013. The Bills have dropped the last three weeks to New Orleans, Kansas City and Pittsburgh.
Buffalo relies heavily on its rush offense, which ranks 7th best in the NFL with 140.7 yards per game. The Bills don’t generate much via the pass, ranking 29th in the NFL, and the main reason is because the QB that Buffalo coveted, E.J. Manuel, is a dual-threat QB. Manuel has thrown for 1,140 yards on the season and rushed for an additional 108. Buffalo’s other main option at QB Thad Lewis also relies heavily on the rush, though not with the success of Manuel (just 35 yards on 14 attempts).
Jets Trends: UNDER 4-0 in last 4 vs teams with losing home records; OVER 6-1 in last 7 overall; 1-4 ATS vs teams with losing records.
Bills Trends: UNDER 4-0 in last 4 in NOV; 4-0 ATS in last 4 after accumulating less than 250 total yards previous game; UNDER 6-1 in last 7 following ATS loss
Head-to-head: UNDER 4-1-1 in last 6 in Buffalo; Jets 4-1 ATS in last 5 in Buffalo; Favorite 6-2 ATS in last 8 meetings.